Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.79 – 126.03

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

135 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 78.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.9 ±10.4

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 60.4Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 127.62Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 47.77Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.3 ±10.5

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 53.05Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 66.06Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 6.92Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11483, 467, 999

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11483, 467, 999

Auto

37.4 16%

Teleop

128.7 56%

Endgame

62.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8544, 8724, 5347

/ 100 compat

Projected

126 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8544, 8724, 5347

Auto

16.7 14%

Teleop

52.3 44%

Endgame

50.7 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score235.8pts

Blue projected score126pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.8
Score range: 85–277
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 225.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.9Season APEX449.3

37.4Auto16.7

128.7Teleop52.3

62.9Endgame50.7

75Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	25
teleop	15	26
endgame	11	19
foul	65	0
total	135	70

Result

Final score

135 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 78.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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