Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.26 – 114.58

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.1 ±13.3

2262Robo-Panthers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 43.57Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6762Oscats

Season APEX 29Event APEX 8.47Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1757Wolverines

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 43.22Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.9 ±12.8

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 36.83Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1027Mechatronic Maniacs

Season APEX 89Event APEX -1.07Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 78.82Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2262, 6762, 1757

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2262, 6762, 1757

Auto

18.8 20%

Teleop

54.3 56%

Endgame

23.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2168, 1027, 5112

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2168, 1027, 5112

Auto

6.7 6%

Teleop

45.6 44%

Endgame

51.5 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.3pts

Blue projected score114.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.3
Score range: 54–156
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 228.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.1Season APEX304.9

18.8Auto6.7

54.3Teleop45.6

23.2Endgame51.5

41Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	45
teleop	35	78
endgame	38	29
foul	0	20
total	109	172

Result

Final score

109 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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