Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.86 – 131.21

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.7 ±12.2

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 108.32Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 14.98Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4628Sintian Robotics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 103.56Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.9 ±11.2

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 51.34Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 53.87Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6762Oscats

Season APEX 29Event APEX 26Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2079, 5347, 4628

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2079, 5347, 4628

Auto

29.3 12%

Teleop

138.7 58%

Endgame

70.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9644, 8544, 6762

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9644, 8544, 6762

Auto

10.5 8%

Teleop

79.7 63%

Endgame

36.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.9pts

Blue projected score131.2pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.7
Score range: 91–267
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 224.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.7Season APEX309.9

29.3Auto10.5

138.7Teleop79.7

70.3Endgame36.3

104Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	21
teleop	102	65
endgame	80	31
foul	0	0
total	192	117

Result

Final score

192 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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