Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.03 – 191.18

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

312 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 120.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.3 ±11.2

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 79.25Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 30.58Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 26.2Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 406 ±11.7

3634Bridgeport Spark City

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 29.23Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 55.85Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 106.1Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 467, 8724, 3205

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 467, 8724, 3205

Auto

37.1 29%

Teleop

73.0 57%

Endgame

18.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3634, 5112, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3634, 5112, 5422

Auto

32.5 17%

Teleop

102.4 55%

Endgame

51.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136pts

Blue projected score191.2pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.1
Score range: 96–231
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 569 vs event baseline 221.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.3Season APEX406

37.1Auto32.5

73Teleop102.4

18.9Endgame51.3

96Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	40
teleop	193	168
endgame	64	34
foul	0	15
total	312	257

Result

Final score

312 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 120.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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