Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.74 – 146.7

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 70.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.1 ±12.2

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 76.45Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX -4.49Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 49.78Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.2 ±11.7

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 24.53Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 89.14Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 33.03Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1100, 5347, 4048

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1100, 5347, 4048

Auto

17.3 15%

Teleop

53.5 46%

Endgame

44.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5491, 348, 1740

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5491, 348, 1740

Auto

14.1 10%

Teleop

86.0 60%

Endgame

43.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.7pts

Blue projected score146.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25
Score range: 83–186
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 219.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.1Season APEX366.2

17.3Auto14.1

53.5Teleop86

44.3Endgame43

0Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	14
teleop	156	74
endgame	79	48
foul	0	0
total	252	136

Result

Final score

252 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 70.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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