Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.47 – 231.08

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 92.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420.2 ±12.4

97Bionic Beef

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX -19.3Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 159.8Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX -1.03Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.5 ±11

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 65.76Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1757Wolverines

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 69.64Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 95.68Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 97, 2370, 3205

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 97, 2370, 3205

Auto

30.4 22%

Teleop

74.0 53%

Endgame

34.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8544, 1757, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8544, 1757, 467

Auto

39.0 17%

Teleop

105.1 47%

Endgame

80.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139.5pts

Blue projected score231.1pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.6
Score range: 99–271
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 555 vs event baseline 220.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420.2Season APEX300.5

30.4Auto39

74Teleop105.1

34.8Endgame80

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	41
teleop	206	148
endgame	50	53
foul	0	5
total	308	247

Result

Final score

308 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 92.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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