Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.45 – 238.48

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 97 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.8 ±12.4

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 63.83Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 57.41Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 38.21Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.3 ±10.2

348Norwell Robotics

Season APEX 147.4Event APEX 39.43Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 172.27Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2262Robo-Panthers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 26.78Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9644, 4048, 5491

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9644, 4048, 5491

Auto

38.4 26%

Teleop

73.6 49%

Endgame

36.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 348, 3467, 2262

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 348, 3467, 2262

Auto

25.7 11%

Teleop

137.3 58%

Endgame

72.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.5pts

Blue projected score238.5pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79
Score range: 120–277
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 214.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.8Season APEX582.3

38.4Auto25.7

73.6Teleop137.3

36.8Endgame72.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	60
teleop	95	261
endgame	16	74
foul	0	5
total	127	400

Result

Final score

127 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 97 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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