Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.76 – 242.29

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.4 ±13.3

1027Mechatronic Maniacs

Season APEX 89Event APEX 57.19Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10393Foxborough High School

Season APEX 66.6Event APEX 50.8Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 54.77Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.5 ±11.4

2168Aluminum Falcons

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 32.56Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 231.6Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -21.87Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1027, 10393, 237

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1027, 10393, 237

Auto

27.8 17%

Teleop

73.5 45%

Endgame

61.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2168, 190, 157

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2168, 190, 157

Auto

34.8 15%

Teleop

130.1 54%

Endgame

75.0 31%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.8pts

Blue projected score242.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.5
Score range: 124–281
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 217.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.4Season APEX377.5

27.8Auto34.8

73.5Teleop130.1

61.9Endgame75

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	40
teleop	22	138
endgame	26	81
foul	0	0
total	84	259

Result

Final score

84 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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