Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

325.08 – 197.03

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

247 – 253

Prediction missed · off by 67 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.8 ±12.4

4628Sintian Robotics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 144.45Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 149.89Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX 30.74Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 644 ±8.8

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 132.99Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 11.32Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 52.72Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4628, 10254, 716

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4628, 10254, 716

Auto

58.8 18%

Teleop

189.1 58%

Endgame

77.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1768, 8567, 8724

/ 100 compat

Projected

197 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1768, 8567, 8724

Auto

32.8 17%

Teleop

120.4 62%

Endgame

40.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score325.1pts

Blue projected score197pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128
Score range: 158–364
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 214.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.8Season APEX644

58.8Auto32.8

189.1Teleop120.4

77.3Endgame40

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	53
teleop	134	130
endgame	60	70
foul	0	0
total	247	253

Result

Final score

247 – 253

Prediction missed · off by 67 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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