Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.07 – 243

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 75 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.5 ±10.4

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 81.73Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 81.83Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX -1.49Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.7 ±11.7

1757Wolverines

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 88.93Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3205Patriots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 28.6Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 125.47Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1100, 2079, 999

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1100, 2079, 999

Auto

8.3 5%

Teleop

84.3 54%

Endgame

64.0 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1757, 3205, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

243 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1757, 3205, 5000

Auto

33.5 14%

Teleop

137.4 57%

Endgame

70.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.1pts

Blue projected score243pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.9
Score range: 124–281
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 213.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.5Season APEX511.7

8.3Auto33.5

84.3Teleop137.4

64Endgame70

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	44
teleop	153	116
endgame	52	34
foul	0	0
total	263	194

Result

Final score

263 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 75 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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