Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.42 – 184.51

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 78.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.2 ±11.7

5494Bizarbots Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX -20.54Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6333Scavenger Robotics

Season APEX 92.9Event APEX 49.39Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 30.57Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.6 ±11.7

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 66.2Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 87.74Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 30.57Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5494, 6333, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5494, 6333, 9644

Auto

11.7 20%

Teleop

25.8 45%

Endgame

20.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5422, 8544, 1474

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5422, 8544, 1474

Auto

26.6 15%

Teleop

106.0 60%

Endgame

45.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.4pts

Blue projected score184.5pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.1
Score range: 20–224
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 214.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.2Season APEX288.6

11.7Auto26.6

25.8Teleop106

20.1Endgame45.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	39
teleop	114	94
endgame	52	50
foul	5	0
total	215	183

Result

Final score

215 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 78.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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