Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.64 – 218.26

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 380

Prediction correct · off by 83.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.7 ±11.7

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 34.81Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 26.33Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 82.5Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 674.5 ±10.2

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 90.36Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1027Mechatronic Maniacs

Season APEX 89Event APEX 14.57Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 113.33Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5491, 5112, 11483

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5491, 5112, 11483

Auto

19.3 14%

Teleop

65.8 46%

Endgame

56.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1768, 1027, 10254

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1768, 1027, 10254

Auto

43.7 20%

Teleop

129.1 60%

Endgame

42.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.6pts

Blue projected score218.3pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.6
Score range: 107–255
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 207.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.7Season APEX674.5

19.3Auto43.7

65.8Teleop129.1

56.6Endgame42.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	31
teleop	65	201
endgame	37	148
foul	15	0
total	149	380

Result

Final score

149 – 380

Prediction correct · off by 83.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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