Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

315.09 – 194.66

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 546.8 ±10.8

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 170Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 127.48Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

716Who'sCTEKS

Season APEX 72Event APEX 17.61Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.2 ±12.8

5112The Gongoliers

Season APEX 153Event APEX 103.57Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4628Sintian Robotics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 44.37Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7760Griffin Innovations

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 46.72Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 5422, 716

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1768, 5422, 716

Auto

53.8 17%

Teleop

180.8 57%

Endgame

82.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5112, 4628, 7760

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5112, 4628, 7760

Auto

36.6 19%

Teleop

104.5 55%

Endgame

47.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score315.1pts

Blue projected score194.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.4
Score range: 152–358
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 429 vs event baseline 239.5.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

546.8Season APEX301.2

53.8Auto36.6

180.8Teleop104.5

82.1Endgame47.9

7Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	34
teleop	172	81
endgame	44	49
foul	0	0
total	265	164

Result

Final score

265 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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