Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

526.53 – 409.3

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

354 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 131.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 747.8 ±8.2

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 176.19Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 20.37Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 329.97Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679.5 ±9.5

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 37.57Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 172.62Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 199.11Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 8567, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

526.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1768, 8567, 3467

Auto

98.2 19%

Teleop

303.8 58%

Endgame

122.4 23%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5347, 5000, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5347, 5000, 190

Auto

86.5 21%

Teleop

222.6 55%

Endgame

95.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score526.5pts

Blue projected score409.3pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.2
Score range: 366–570
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 673 vs event baseline 238.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

747.8Season APEX679.5

98.2Auto86.5

303.8Teleop222.6

122.4Endgame95.9

20Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	97
teleop	174	148
endgame	75	59
foul	5	15
total	354	319

Result

Final score

354 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 131.4 pts

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