Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

510.99 – 399.65

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

619 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 83.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 747.8 ±8.2

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 171.77Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 14.61Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 324.61Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679.5 ±9.5

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 33.46Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 169.66Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 196.53Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 8567, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

511 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1768, 8567, 3467

Auto

98.8 19%

Teleop

296.2 58%

Endgame

113.6 22%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5347, 5000, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5347, 5000, 190

Auto

84.9 22%

Teleop

224.6 57%

Endgame

85.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.56 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score511pts

Blue projected score399.7pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.3
Score range: 358–553
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1077 vs event baseline 235.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

747.8Season APEX679.5

98.8Auto84.9

296.2Teleop224.6

113.6Endgame85

22Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	94
teleop	348	214
endgame	176	150
foul	0	0
total	619	458

Result

Final score

619 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 83.2 pts

Match videos

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