Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.46 – 110.78

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 178

Prediction missed · off by 52.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.1 ±10.4

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 90.8Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 88.05Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 14.61Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.7 ±11

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 38.37Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 34Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 38.41Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 236, 230, 2170

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 236, 230, 2170

Auto

62.5 32%

Teleop

89.8 46%

Endgame

41.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 1100, 8709, 429

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1100, 8709, 429

Auto

26.3 26%

Teleop

53.3 52%

Endgame

22.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.5pts

Blue projected score110.8pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.7
Score range: 85–219
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 143.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.1Season APEX361.7

62.5Auto26.3

89.8Teleop53.3

41.3Endgame22.3

0Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	49
teleop	94	77
endgame	31	47
foul	5	5
total	155	178

Result

Final score

155 – 178

Prediction missed · off by 52.8 pts

Match videos

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