Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.12 – 206.88

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

183 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.7 ±11

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 44.11Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 42.94Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 47.07Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.1 ±10.4

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 98.03Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 90.23Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 18.62Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 429, 8709, 1100

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 429, 8709, 1100

Auto

35.2 28%

Teleop

60.5 48%

Endgame

31.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 236, 230, 2170

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 236, 230, 2170

Auto

52.4 26%

Teleop

107.3 53%

Endgame

43.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.1pts

Blue projected score206.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.8
Score range: 107–234
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 149.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.7Season APEX383.1

35.2Auto52.4

60.5Teleop107.3

31.2Endgame43.1

93Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	57
teleop	75	126
endgame	66	37
foul	0	5
total	183	225

Result

Final score

183 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Match videos

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