Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.56 – 127.96

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.7 ±11

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 44.93Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 39.42Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 42.21Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.3 ±10.4

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 23.09Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 40.33Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 64.54Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1100, 8709, 429

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1100, 8709, 429

Auto

34.3 28%

Teleop

55.2 46%

Endgame

30.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 173, 178, 177

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 173, 178, 177

Auto

26.5 23%

Teleop

62.9 54%

Endgame

27.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.6pts

Blue projected score128pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.4
Score range: 100–155
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 149.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.7Season APEX382.3

34.3Auto26.5

55.2Teleop62.9

30.9Endgame27.8

86Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	29
teleop	85	40
endgame	33	24
foul	0	5
total	157	98

Result

Final score

157 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 30.2 pts

Match videos

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