Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.22 – 45.27

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.7 ±12.8

5142RoboDominators

Season APEX 80Event APEX 25.1Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 0.97Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 90.15Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.5 ±10.4

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 10.81Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 20.86Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 13.6Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5142, 7694, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5142, 7694, 230

Auto

24.9 22%

Teleop

55.0 49%

Endgame

32.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10910, 173, 2170

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10910, 173, 2170

Auto

22.5 52%

Teleop

17.7 41%

Endgame

2.8 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.2pts

Blue projected score45.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.9
Score range: 20–141
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 139.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.7Season APEX316.5

24.9Auto22.5

55Teleop17.7

32.6Endgame2.8

9Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	22
teleop	50	47
endgame	25	25
foul	0	0
total	107	94

Result

Final score

107 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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