Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.68 – 127.28

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.2 ±11

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 24.53Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 1.64Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 34.51Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.1 ±11.7

4034Pelham πthons Team 4034

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 26.04Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 5.49Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 95.75Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 173, 3461, 8567

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 173, 3461, 8567

Auto

18.5 42%

Teleop

20.1 45%

Endgame

5.7 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4034, 1991, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4034, 1991, 230

Auto

35.9 29%

Teleop

43.6 35%

Endgame

46.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.7pts

Blue projected score127.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.6
Score range: 37–151
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 136 vs event baseline 135.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.2Season APEX262.1

18.5Auto35.9

20.1Teleop43.6

5.7Endgame46

5Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	29
teleop	25	47
endgame	0	20
foul	0	0
total	40	96

Result

Final score

40 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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