Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.76 – 139.12

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.9 ±12.2

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 39.64Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 2.72Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1027Mechatronic Maniacs

Season APEX 89Event APEX -9.6Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.6 ±11.7

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 49.16Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 94.03Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX -4.07Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 429, 1991, 1027

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 429, 1991, 1027

Auto

7.2 25%

Teleop

6.6 23%

Endgame

14.6 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3146, 236, 10945

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3146, 236, 10945

Auto

40.1 31%

Teleop

64.0 49%

Endgame

26.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.8pts

Blue projected score139.1pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.4
Score range: 9–163
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 133.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.9Season APEX331.6

7.2Auto40.1

6.6Teleop64

14.6Endgame26.4

15Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	37
teleop	25	49
endgame	8	31
foul	20	0
total	80	117

Result

Final score

80 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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