Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.7 – 53.64

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.1 ±11.7

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 44.05Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 22.53Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6346Cybears Robotics Team

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 31.12Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.4 ±11.7

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 19.11Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 17.94Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9101Green Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 16.59Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7127, 7153, 6346

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7127, 7153, 6346

Auto

20.4 24%

Teleop

39.4 46%

Endgame

25.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8709, 3654, 9101

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8709, 3654, 9101

Auto

16.7 32%

Teleop

27.8 53%

Endgame

8.4 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.7pts

Blue projected score53.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.1
Score range: 30–122
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 134.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.1Season APEX286.4

20.4Auto16.7

39.4Teleop27.8

25.6Endgame8.4

52Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	21
teleop	89	50
endgame	29	28
foul	0	5
total	144	104

Result

Final score

144 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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