Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.24 – 115.1

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413 ±11.7

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX -0.56Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 126.19Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

181Birds Of Prey

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 27.61Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397 ±11

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 34.67Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 52.5Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 27.93Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3461, 2067, 181

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3461, 2067, 181

Auto

32.2 23%

Teleop

86.3 61%

Endgame

22.7 16%

Strengths

· 2067 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1740, 177, 8567

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1740, 177, 8567

Auto

25.8 24%

Teleop

56.6 53%

Endgame

24.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.2pts

Blue projected score115.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.1
Score range: 91–177
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 133.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413Season APEX397

32.2Auto25.8

86.3Teleop56.6

22.7Endgame24.7

16Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	46
teleop	118	126
endgame	23	10
foul	15	5
total	202	187

Result

Final score

202 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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