Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.27 – 112.15

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 46.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291 ±11.7

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 21.51Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 51.76Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6346Cybears Robotics Team

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 25Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.2 ±12.2

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 33.23Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 51.83Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

181Birds Of Prey

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 27.09Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8567, 1100, 6346

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8567, 1100, 6346

Auto

22.3 26%

Teleop

38.2 44%

Endgame

26.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1740, 3146, 181

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1740, 3146, 181

Auto

10.9 10%

Teleop

63.3 56%

Endgame

37.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.3pts

Blue projected score112.2pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.9
Score range: 74–136
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291Season APEX334.2

22.3Auto10.9

38.2Teleop63.3

26.1Endgame37.9

59Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	22
teleop	65	58
endgame	54	34
foul	30	15
total	174	129

Result

Final score

174 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 46.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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