Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.81 – 309.67

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

148 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.3 ±9.8

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 31.91Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 4.34Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 83.56Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 667.9 ±10.7

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 155.37Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1027Mechatronic Maniacs

Season APEX 89Event APEX -8.5Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 162.8Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 178, 1991, 571

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 178, 1991, 571

Auto

31.1 27%

Teleop

56.1 49%

Endgame

26.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 176, 1027, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 176, 1027, 195

Auto

57.6 19%

Teleop

186.2 60%

Endgame

65.2 21%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.8pts

Blue projected score309.7pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -189.9
Score range: 97–333
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 493 vs event baseline 128.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.3Season APEX667.9

31.1Auto57.6

56.1Teleop186.2

26.5Endgame65.2

2Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	75
teleop	56	220
endgame	43	50
foul	5	0
total	148	345

Result

Final score

148 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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