Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.57 – 85.78

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

122 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 38.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.7 ±11.7

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 26.05Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 22.32Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 16.2Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.3 ±13.3

5142RoboDominators

Season APEX 80Event APEX 16.43Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6346Cybears Robotics Team

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 25.01Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 44.34Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4176, 155, 8567

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4176, 155, 8567

Auto

31.9 50%

Teleop

27.2 43%

Endgame

4.9 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5142, 6346, 429

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5142, 6346, 429

Auto

1.1 1%

Teleop

46.1 60%

Endgame

29.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.6pts

Blue projected score85.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.2
Score range: 42–109
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 129.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.7Season APEX213.3

31.9Auto1.1

27.2Teleop46.1

4.9Endgame29.4

53Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	29
teleop	48	30
endgame	38	31
foul	5	15
total	122	105

Result

Final score

122 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 38.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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