Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.64 – 159.71

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.3 ±13.3

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 39.13Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

181Birds Of Prey

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 30.26Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 23.25Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.3 ±11.7

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 22.72Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 99.95Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6346Cybears Robotics Team

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 37.04Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 237, 181, 10592

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 237, 181, 10592

Auto

22.5 25%

Teleop

47.4 52%

Endgame

21.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 173, 236, 6346

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 173, 236, 6346

Auto

38.2 25%

Teleop

77.7 51%

Endgame

36.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.6pts

Blue projected score159.7pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.1
Score range: 65–188
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 155.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.3Season APEX340.3

22.5Auto38.2

47.4Teleop77.7

21.4Endgame36.3

33Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	23
teleop	29	61
endgame	22	14
foul	0	0
total	63	98

Result

Final score

63 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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