Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.39 – 105.68

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 73.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.7 ±11

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 108.84Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 46.97Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 18.58Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.5 ±11.2

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 84.62Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX -5.54Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 26.6Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 230, 1740, 10910

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 230, 1740, 10910

Auto

27.4 16%

Teleop

92.1 53%

Endgame

52.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2370, 1991, 10592

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2370, 1991, 10592

Auto

23.0 22%

Teleop

51.0 49%

Endgame

29.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.4pts

Blue projected score105.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.7
Score range: 83–197
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 125.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.7Season APEX388.5

27.4Auto23

92.1Teleop51

52.7Endgame29.9

0Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	41
teleop	58	106
endgame	46	55
foul	0	5
total	128	207

Result

Final score

128 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 73.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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