Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.36 – 109.53

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 71.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.8 ±11.2

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 12.09Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 198.63Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 16.64Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.6 ±11

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 0.82Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 69.01Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 39.7Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10945, 195, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10945, 195, 1991

Auto

60.9 27%

Teleop

116.4 52%

Endgame

44.8 20%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3461, 3146, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3461, 3146, 839

Auto

14.4 13%

Teleop

70.0 65%

Endgame

23.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score227.4pts

Blue projected score109.5pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.8
Score range: 88–249
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 124.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.8Season APEX347.6

60.9Auto14.4

116.4Teleop70

44.8Endgame23.5

43Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	13
teleop	40	38
endgame	20	29
foul	5	30
total	85	110

Result

Final score

85 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 71.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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