Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.32 – 94.12

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.2 ±10.4

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 86.17Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 97.03Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 22.12Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.7 ±13.9

6895Mechanical Madness 4-H

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 42.35Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6346Cybears Robotics Team

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 25.69Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 26.08Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 236, 230, 178

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 236, 230, 178

Auto

59.5 31%

Teleop

86.7 45%

Endgame

47.5 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 5%

Blue · 6895, 6346, 4176

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6895, 6346, 4176

Auto

13.7 15%

Teleop

53.0 56%

Endgame

27.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 5%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score205.3pts

Blue projected score94.1pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 5%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.2
Score range: 72–227
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 383 vs event baseline 123.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.2Season APEX168.7

59.5Auto13.7

86.7Teleop53

47.5Endgame27.7

5Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	20
teleop	130	45
endgame	65	42
foul	5	0
total	276	107

Result

Final score

276 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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