Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.43 – 19.08

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.8 ±11.7

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 24.13Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4034Pelham πthons Team 4034

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 47.68Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 4.62Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.3 ±13.3

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 41.97Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 22.8Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX -45.69Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 155, 4034, 3654

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 155, 4034, 3654

Auto

9.0 13%

Teleop

27.0 38%

Endgame

34.9 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1740, 10592, 7694

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1740, 10592, 7694

Auto

2.4 15%

Teleop

10.1 64%

Endgame

3.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.4pts

Blue projected score19.1pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.4
Score range: -3–98
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 123.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.8Season APEX251.3

9Auto2.4

27Teleop10.1

34.9Endgame3.2

85Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	12
teleop	65	46
endgame	14	19
foul	5	5
total	107	82

Result

Final score

107 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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