Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.98 – 104.37

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.6 ±11.2

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 13.73Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 15.22Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 146.03Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.6 ±12.4

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 71.13Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 12.79Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6346Cybears Robotics Team

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 20.45Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4176, 10910, 176

/ 100 compat

Projected

175 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4176, 10910, 176

Auto

24.5 14%

Teleop

107.4 61%

Endgame

45.5 26%

Strengths

· 176 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 571, 10945, 6346

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 571, 10945, 6346

Auto

17.6 17%

Teleop

61.9 59%

Endgame

25.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score175pts

Blue projected score104.4pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.6
Score range: 82–197
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 119.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.6Season APEX358.6

24.5Auto17.6

107.4Teleop61.9

45.5Endgame25.3

58Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	33
teleop	133	63
endgame	42	38
foul	5	15
total	238	149

Result

Final score

238 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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