Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.6 – 0

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.8 ±10.4

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 71.68Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 0.94Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 17.98Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.1 ±13.3

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX -49.62Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX -1.5Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4034Pelham πthons Team 4034

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 38.93Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3146, 8709, 7153

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3146, 8709, 7153

Auto

35.8 43%

Teleop

42.5 51%

Endgame

4.8 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7694, 3461, 4034

/ 100 compat

Projected

-12.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7694, 3461, 4034

Auto

11.7 0%

Teleop

-34.1 100%

Endgame

-0.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.6pts

Blue projected score-12.2pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.6
Score range: -22–113
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 119.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.8Season APEX206.1

35.8Auto11.7

42.5Teleop-34.1

4.8Endgame-0.1

18Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	14
teleop	65	22
endgame	19	6
foul	0	5
total	108	47

Result

Final score

108 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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