Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.57 – 49.73

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 388 ±12.4

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 14.18Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1027Mechatronic Maniacs

Season APEX 89Event APEX -2.54Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 85.93Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.8 ±11

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX -14.61Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7127LongMetal Robotics

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 28.5Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 35.84Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10945, 1027, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10945, 1027, 2370

Auto

4.9 5%

Teleop

58.1 62%

Endgame

30.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 173, 7127, 1740

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 173, 7127, 1740

Auto

11.6 23%

Teleop

31.1 61%

Endgame

8.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.6pts

Blue projected score49.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.8
Score range: 29–119
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 117.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

388Season APEX382.8

4.9Auto11.6

58.1Teleop31.1

30.7Endgame8.5

66Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	22
teleop	29	43
endgame	15	32
foul	5	0
total	85	97

Result

Final score

85 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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