Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.63 – 173.48

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 72.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.7 ±12.2

9101Green Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 10.84Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 57.68Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 45.11Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±9.8

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 19.85Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 51.69Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 101.94Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9101, 839, 429

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9101, 839, 429

Auto

19.1 18%

Teleop

53.6 51%

Endgame

33.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2170, 9710, 571

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2170, 9710, 571

Auto

28.5 17%

Teleop

92.0 56%

Endgame

43.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.6pts

Blue projected score173.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.8
Score range: 86–201
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 155.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.7Season APEX462.9

19.1Auto28.5

53.6Teleop92

33.2Endgame43

44Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	23
teleop	50	13
endgame	47	0
foul	0	0
total	107	36

Result

Final score

107 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 72.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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