Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.43 – 137.76

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 69.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.9 ±12.8

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 20.02Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4034Pelham πthons Team 4034

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 28.45Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5142RoboDominators

Season APEX 80Event APEX 2.96Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.6 ±12.2

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 12.51Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9101Green Mountain Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 30.2Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 95.05Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 839, 4034, 5142

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 839, 4034, 5142

Auto

11.9 25%

Teleop

30.3 63%

Endgame

5.6 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3461, 9101, 236

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3461, 9101, 236

Auto

32.4 23%

Teleop

71.2 51%

Endgame

36.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.4pts

Blue projected score137.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.3
Score range: 30–159
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 117.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.9Season APEX311.6

11.9Auto32.4

30.3Teleop71.2

5.6Endgame36.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	36
teleop	46	22
endgame	72	11
foul	15	15
total	137	84

Result

Final score

137 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 69.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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