Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.85 – 192.55

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

126 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 56.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.7 ±11.7

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 86.08Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 21.35Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 6.42Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.8 ±10.5

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 50.55Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 8.82Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 133.18Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 230, 10945, 3654

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 230, 10945, 3654

Auto

7.0 6%

Teleop

66.9 59%

Endgame

39.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 429, 7153, 176

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 429, 7153, 176

Auto

35.4 20%

Teleop

85.8 49%

Endgame

55.5 31%

Strengths

· 176 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.9pts

Blue projected score192.6pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.7
Score range: 93–214
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 117.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.7Season APEX437.8

7Auto35.4

66.9Teleop85.8

39.1Endgame55.5

79Consistency175

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	52
teleop	56	163
endgame	33	78
foul	5	0
total	126	293

Result

Final score

126 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 56.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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