Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.22 – 248.41

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285 ±11.7

181Birds Of Prey

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 55.41Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 67.37Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX -15.56Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 579.1 ±9.8

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 182.14Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 30.46Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 35.81Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 181, 230, 8567

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 181, 230, 8567

Auto

19.9 19%

Teleop

46.7 44%

Endgame

39.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 195, 839, 8709

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 195, 839, 8709

Auto

32.1 13%

Teleop

140.7 58%

Endgame

70.8 29%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.2pts

Blue projected score248.4pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -141.2
Score range: 87–268
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 109.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285Season APEX579.1

19.9Auto32.1

46.7Teleop140.7

39Endgame70.8

22Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	43
teleop	51	157
endgame	22	13
foul	10	0
total	116	213

Result

Final score

116 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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