Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.23 – 43.42

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.6 ±12.8

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 14.32Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 19Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

236Techno-Ticks

Season APEX 165.4Event APEX 106.91Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.9 ±11

2170Galvanized Guardians

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX -18.61Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 32.37Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 29.66Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10592, 4176, 236

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10592, 4176, 236

Auto

29.6 22%

Teleop

68.8 50%

Endgame

38.3 28%

Strengths

· 236 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2170, 3654, 3461

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2170, 3654, 3461

Auto

10.6 27%

Teleop

19.9 52%

Endgame

8.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.2pts

Blue projected score43.4pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.8
Score range: 23–160
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 111.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.6Season APEX260.9

29.6Auto10.6

68.8Teleop19.9

38.3Endgame8.1

102Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	12
teleop	65	16
endgame	12	4
foul	0	0
total	125	32

Result

Final score

125 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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