Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.52 – 200.97

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268 ±12.8

1027Mechatronic Maniacs

Season APEX 89Event APEX -13.88Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 34.8Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 59.6Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.5 ±10.4

177Bobcat Robotics

Season APEX 162.9Event APEX 64.35Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 90.86Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 45.76Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1027, 4176, 3146

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1027, 4176, 3146

Auto

18.9 26%

Teleop

35.7 50%

Endgame

17.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 177, 230, 8709

/ 100 compat

Projected

201 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 177, 230, 8709

Auto

41.6 21%

Teleop

117.9 58%

Endgame

42.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.5pts

Blue projected score201pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.4
Score range: 53–229
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 155.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268Season APEX435.5

18.9Auto41.6

35.7Teleop117.9

17.4Endgame42.5

58Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	36
teleop	33	60
endgame	22	32
foul	0	0
total	66	128

Result

Final score

66 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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