Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 53.03

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.4 ±11

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 21.42Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 28.6Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX -55.1Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.9 ±11.6

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 29.36Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

237Black Magic Robotics

Season APEX 103.8Event APEX 10.33Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1740Cyber Colonels

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 13.34Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 429, 155, 173

/ 100 compat

Projected

-5.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 429, 155, 173

Auto

7.2 0%

Teleop

2.2 0%

Endgame

-22.2 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 178, 237, 1740

/ 100 compat

Projected

53 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 178, 237, 1740

Auto

12.6 30%

Teleop

23.6 56%

Endgame

5.9 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-5.1pts

Blue projected score53pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53
Score range: -20–73
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 111.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.4Season APEX346.9

7.2Auto12.6

2.2Teleop23.6

-22.2Endgame5.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	29
teleop	51	11
endgame	31	5
foul	0	0
total	99	45

Result

Final score

99 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 53.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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