Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.52 – 0

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 90.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.7 ±12.4

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX -30.01Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 111.74Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10945ELP's Mad CAD-ers

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 19.79Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.9 ±11.2

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX -1.44Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

571Paragon Robotics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX -8.93Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6895Mechanical Madness 4-H

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 0.04Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7694, 176, 10945

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7694, 176, 10945

Auto

37.7 38%

Teleop

59.1 59%

Endgame

3.6 4%

Strengths

· 176 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8709, 571, 6895

/ 100 compat

Projected

-10.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8709, 571, 6895

Auto

26.9 0%

Teleop

-23.6 100%

Endgame

-18.9 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.5pts

Blue projected score-10.3pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.5
Score range: -20–122
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 109.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.7Season APEX468.9

37.7Auto26.9

59.1Teleop-23.6

3.6Endgame-18.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	20
teleop	74	83
endgame	38	53
foul	0	0
total	127	156

Result

Final score

127 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 90.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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