Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.39 – 49.76

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.4 ±11.7

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 46.14Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 52.87Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 4.38Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.4 ±11.7

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 46.29Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1027Mechatronic Maniacs

Season APEX 89Event APEX 9.73Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX -6.26Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3654, 3146, 10592

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3654, 3146, 10592

Auto

10.4 10%

Teleop

69.8 70%

Endgame

19.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 839, 1027, 7153

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 839, 1027, 7153

Auto

17.1 35%

Teleop

17.1 35%

Endgame

14.5 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.4pts

Blue projected score49.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.6
Score range: 30–123
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 111.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.4Season APEX305.4

10.4Auto17.1

69.8Teleop17.1

19.8Endgame14.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	0
teleop	51	35
endgame	34	3
foul	5	0
total	101	38

Result

Final score

101 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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