Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

45.04 – 23.65

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

92 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.8 ±11

429Two Many Bobcats

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 23.72Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX -22.28Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 43.6Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 464.1 ±11.2

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 30.77Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7694THE IRON LIONS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX -16.93Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 9.81Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 429, 8709, 178

/ 100 compat

Projected

45 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 429, 8709, 178

Auto

19.6 48%

Teleop

-6.0 0%

Endgame

27.6 67%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2370, 7694, 1100

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2370, 7694, 1100

Auto

29.0 100%

Teleop

-7.4 0%

Endgame

3.4 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45pts

Blue projected score23.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.4
Score range: 5–64
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 108.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.8Season APEX464.1

19.6Auto29

-6Teleop-7.4

27.6Endgame3.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	18
teleop	33	23
endgame	1	0
foul	35	0
total	92	41

Result

Final score

92 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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