Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.8 – 55.14

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 87.5 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.6 ±11.7

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 33.43Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10592Stamford Cyber-Hird TSA

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 22.86Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 26.51Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.8 ±11.2

6346Cybears Robotics Team

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 14.47Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2067Apple Pi

Season APEX 260Event APEX 40.35Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3146GRANBY GRUNTS

Season APEX 128.1Event APEX 0.32Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 155, 10592, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 155, 10592, 839

Auto

12.9 16%

Teleop

39.6 48%

Endgame

30.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6346, 2067, 3146

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6346, 2067, 3146

Auto

8.3 17%

Teleop

27.5 55%

Endgame

14.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.8pts

Blue projected score55.1pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.7
Score range: 36–102
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 103.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.6Season APEX445.8

12.9Auto8.3

39.6Teleop27.5

30.2Endgame14.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	39
teleop	76	124
endgame	20	30
foul	0	15
total	105	208

Result

Final score

105 – 208

Prediction missed · off by 87.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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