Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.02 – 40.07

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.2 ±11.7

3654TechTigers

Season APEX 82Event APEX 39.85Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6895Mechanical Madness 4-H

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 16.74Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 49.43Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.7 ±10.4

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 1.64Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 30.19Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 8.24Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3654, 6895, 1100

/ 100 compat

Projected

106 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3654, 6895, 1100

Auto

19.1 19%

Teleop

47.1 46%

Endgame

36.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1991, 8567, 10910

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1991, 8567, 10910

Auto

19.9 66%

Teleop

4.6 15%

Endgame

5.5 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106pts

Blue projected score40.1pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.9
Score range: 12–134
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 84 vs event baseline 155.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.2Season APEX281.7

19.1Auto19.9

47.1Teleop4.6

36.5Endgame5.5

80Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	11
teleop	34	3
endgame	25	5
foul	0	0
total	65	19

Result

Final score

65 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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