Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.88 – 259.31

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

300 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 736.4 ±8.7

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 17.57Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 117.83Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 90.48Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 567.1 ±10.5

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 91.44Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 41.41Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 126.46Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6201, 238, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6201, 238, 2713

Auto

48.0 22%

Teleop

118.5 54%

Endgame

53.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 88, 5459, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 88, 5459, 133

Auto

45.1 19%

Teleop

145.9 63%

Endgame

41.2 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score225.9pts

Blue projected score259.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.4
Score range: 198–287
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 154.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

736.4Season APEX567.1

48Auto45.1

118.5Teleop145.9

53.9Endgame41.2

22Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	58
teleop	150	107
endgame	52	78
foul	25	0
total	300	243

Result

Final score

300 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 45.2 pts

Match videos

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