Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

391.46 – 191.42

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

358 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 671.4 ±8.8

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 179.01Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 35.34Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 177.11Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480 ±11.2

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 75.95Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 17.23Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 98.24Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 3958, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 3958, 5813

Auto

55.2 14%

Teleop

230.3 60%

Endgame

97.4 25%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1058, 246, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1058, 246, 2423

Auto

49.4 27%

Teleop

101.1 56%

Endgame

30.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score391.5pts

Blue projected score191.4pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 200
Score range: 163–419
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 578 vs event baseline 153.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

671.4Season APEX480

55.2Auto49.4

230.3Teleop101.1

97.4Endgame30.5

0Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	30
teleop	204	93
endgame	66	87
foul	15	10
total	358	220

Result

Final score

358 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Match videos

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