Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.24 – 158.84

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 17.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.8 ±10.4

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 34.04Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 69.34Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 55.86Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.6 ±10.5

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 19.26Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 62.36Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 77.22Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2876, 4311, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2876, 4311, 151

Auto

19.3 14%

Teleop

79.1 56%

Endgame

41.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5735, 78, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5735, 78, 2877

Auto

39.5 26%

Teleop

88.1 59%

Endgame

22.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.2pts

Blue projected score158.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.4
Score range: 131–187
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 153.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.8Season APEX489.6

19.3Auto39.5

79.1Teleop88.1

41.9Endgame22.8

9Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	38
teleop	68	60
endgame	38	36
foul	5	10
total	139	144

Result

Final score

139 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 17.5 pts

Match videos

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