Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

256.45 – 152.62

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

267 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567.1 ±10.5

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 90.38Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 40.33Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

133B.E.R.T.

Season APEX 209.2Event APEX 125.74Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.6 ±10.5

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 17.28Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

78AIR STRIKE

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 60.1Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 75.24Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 88, 5459, 133

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 88, 5459, 133

Auto

41.2 18%

Teleop

144.0 63%

Endgame

41.9 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5735, 78, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5735, 78, 2877

Auto

39.8 27%

Teleop

78.0 54%

Endgame

27.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score256.5pts

Blue projected score152.6pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.8
Score range: 126–283
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 152.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567.1Season APEX489.6

41.2Auto39.8

144Teleop78

41.9Endgame27.1

13Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	40
teleop	153	130
endgame	36	6
foul	15	10
total	267	186

Result

Final score

267 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Match videos

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